Gm! *GOT spoiler alert*
[Welcome to Issue Number 40 of The House Brazeryen, where we break down the latest #startup, #biotech, and #ScientistCEO-related news for you fortnightly, in roughly 5 minutes. Brought to you by Brazen Capital and brainsurgerydropout.]
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RE: A Lesson in Ambiguity (and Hacking)
by Shawn Carbonell, MD, PhD â This week it was reported in Science Advances that COVID-19 vaccines were associated with an increased risk of vaginal bleeding⌠even in POST-menopausal women (!!!).
It immediately made me think of TikTok!
Why? Because possibly as far back as two years ago more than a handful of women made comments on my âviralâ COVID-19 vaccine videos to this effect. I largely ignored them because of the thousands of trolls in the mix denigrating âthe jabâ but apparently I made a mental bookmark. Hmmmm⌠Could TikTok be the future of pharmacovigilance/post-marketing surveillance?
After reading the article, I attempted to find the original comments in my posts, howeverâwith over a dozen vaccine posts with hundreds to tens of thousands of comments eachâI quit after 30 minutes. Unfortunately, TikTok doesnât yet have an in-app tool to let you search through comments (I have been sending requests for one to my TikTok rep for 3 years). A simple google search, however, revealed there are paid tools that may do the trick as well as an official TikTok Research API that you have to apply for.
Nah.
Instead, I decided it was the perfect use case for AI chatâto fulfill my dream of becoming a pseudo-hacker by scraping comments from specific TikTok videos. Do I know Python? No. Do I know any coding language? Basic HTML so, no. Why Python? Dunno. Thatâs what Bard gave me.
BRAZEN BREAKDOWN
I opened terminal in my Mac, downloaded Python version 3.9.18 and homebrew, found a promising API on GitHub, and asked Bard and ChatGPT to do the rest.
My intent was to write here about how cool it was that AI chatbots could give me hacker-like powers to do science on a social media app in 15 minutes or less. But after 10 hours of effort, I failed. Even worse, I wielded the âsudoâ command improperly and messed up my network settings for a good hour.
But it wasnât wasted time.
For the first time ever (and Iâve tried several times over the past decade), learning to code was interesting because I was learning in context. There were just enough incremental successes (thanks to GPT4 and Bard) to provide steady boluses of dopamine. Enough such that Iâm sufficiently intrigued to keep trying. Who knew AI was the missing ingredient?
Again, this was literally a completely rando post, but thereâs actually a lot of useful startup metaphor in here. I could drive it home by inserting quotes about âthe importance of the journey rather than the destinationâ and âfailures/mistakes are opportunities for growthâ but I suppose I just did.
VC CORNER: Negotiating Value
by Scott Alpizar, PhD â As a part of the strategy to negotiate your option pool that I discussed last time, I suggested potentially lowering your pre-money valuation. But if you really think about it, to lower the pre-money valuation, youâll need one in the first place!
And sure, that initial point may have already been negotiated before you got the term sheet, but I think itâs still important to step back and talk about it. How do you get to a pre-money valuation that makes sense? Well, first, there are a couple of things to keep in mind right off the bat:
The Quick Math: Iâm not sure Iâve done this before! Pre-money valuation + amount invested = post-money valuation. And the investorâs equity = how much they invested/the post-money valuation. Notice that valuation directly impacts investor equity! The lower the valuations, the more they get to own in the end.
Potential Conflicts: During due diligence, investors will see previous âvaluationsâ, even if not formally negotiated. Try to proactively avoid situations where valuations are implied (valuation caps on SAFEs, for example) too close to fundraising. This can cause a conflict between what youâre asking for and what your company has been previously valued at.
Now knowing that, how can you approach the actual negotiation with an investor?
BRAZEN BREAKDOWN
Them First. If possible! Itâs definitely an advantage if the VC gives their thoughts on valuation first so you donât accidentally undervalue yourself. If asked, defer to a follow-up conversation based on what they think.
Be Reasonable. There can be large fluctuations in what is âmarketââyou may have been able to get a massive valuation in 2021 and 2022, but not today. Plus, giving an unrealistic number makes you look like you donât know what youâre doing and wonât attract investors. On the flip side, going too low just to attract investors may be doing you a disservice!
Research Comps. A way to potentially help combat the changing market fluctuations is to know what pre-money valuation comparable companies at similar stages were able to receive. This isnât always easy to find, but resources such as Crunchbase, Carta, and, PitchBook can help!
Prove It. It all really comes down to this. You need to build your case for why your company is valued at what youâre asking for. Show your progress, critical data, and convince investors youâre worth it. You may need to show revenue or exit projections to highlight the potential return.
As a final thought, itâs also important to understand that the highest number possible may not always be the best. Remember it can be favorable to have a lower valuation in certain instances. Donât potentially sacrifice other important terms just for the highest valuation!
đ BRAZEN SNAX
đ§ Elonâs first brain-computer interface clinical trial now enrolling
đŚ Refresh your supply of FREE COVID tests (thank you regulatory capture)
âď¸ Asteroid rocks and dust finally return to Earth revealing rocks and dust
âĄď¸ Deep brain stimulation to treat
Parkinsonssevere depression disorder𧏠How many copies of COVID RNA are exhaled during normal breathing?
đ Guiding axons across cord injury to original location restores function DUH
đ Key lessons on the mysterious IgG4 isotype through mRNA vaccination
đŚ FDA to smack down ALS therapyâwhich failed ALL endpointsâa 3rd time?!?
đ§ How to evaluate a candidateâs critical thinking skills: The Flip Interview
â° TikTokCrak: Is Mr. Cox Gen Zâs future Bill Nye?
đŞ CARVEOUT
Legendary Benchmark VC, Bill Gurley, delivers one of the most epic closing lines ever and gets a 4 minute standing ovation after his provocative talk at the All-In Summit.
đđ˝ A DOSE OF GRATITUDE
We are grateful for Brazen Summit 2022 Keynote Speaker, Bryan Johnson (aka Zero), for pushing the boundaries and inspiring health (including women, Blueprint XX đ).
đ BRAZEN MEME
âď¸ FEEDBACK
Feel free to tweet all thoughts, questions, and insults to us. Bring it. No, really. COMEđđ˝ATđđ˝USđđ˝BRUHđđ˝
And letâs continue the conversation on LinkedIn: @brazencapital